By Jeff Boggis, "The Sultan of Stats" For Fantasy Football Empire.com.

Most fantasy mangers overlook the importance of a tight end in fantasy drafts. Like quarterbacks, the top tight ends are a scarce commodity. In 2006 drafts, there is Antonio Gates, and then there are the rest of the tight ends. But if you want Gates, you will need to take him as early as the middle of round 3. By doing so, you will pass up either a top quarterback or wide receiver. Since wide receivers are deep, one strategy is to take Gates in round 3, then follow up with either a top wide receiver or quarterback in rounds 4 and 5. If you decide that this is not the route that you want to take, there are plenty of other options available at tight end in rounds 6-10. The tier two running backs can be drafted in rounds 6-7. Todd Heap is the current tight end being taken after Gates. With Willis McGahee in the fold in Baltimore, Heap’s value should increase as defenses key more on the run this season. Jeremy Shockey is the 3^rd tight end going off the board. With Tiki Barber retired, defenses will be keying less on the run and more on the pass this season. Eli Manning may dump off a lot of passes to Shockey this season. The 4^th tight end off the board is Tony Gonzalez in Kansas City. With Larry Johnson still holding out and a new quarterback at the helm this season, I am concerned somewhat about Tony’s overall numbers for 2007. Is he being drafted more on his name that his overall ability? The 5^th tight end off the board is Alge Crumpler of the Atlanta Falcons. With Michael Vick out for who knows how long and Joey Harrington as the starting quarterback in Atlanta, Crumpler’s value should either remain the same or slightly decrease. Harrington will be checking off to Crumpler a lot this season. But don’t lose sight that Crumpler was Vick’s go to guy for the last several seasons. Will Harrington and Crumpler develop the same chemistry that Crumpler had with Vick? Time will tell. The 6^th tight end off the board is Vernon Davis and he is the last of the tier 2 tight ends. I think that Davis offers the best value at tight end this season. You can draft him in the middle to late 7^th round and he could end up ranking #2 overall by the end of the season. There are several tier 3 tight ends that will make nice additions to fantasy rosters this season. The 7^th tight end being drafted is Chris Cooley of the Washington Redskins. He should slip to round 8 or later. He is currently being drafted with the last pick in round 7. The 8^th tight end of the board is Kellen Winslow of the Cleveland Browns. I think that Winslow is going to have a great season and will produce the same or better than most of the tier 2 tight ends. Both Kellen Winslow and Vernon Davis are tight ends to target once the big boys are off the board. Ben Watson is the 9^th tight end being drafted this season. My concern with Watson is that of any wide receiver or tight end in New England. Brady spreads the ball around so who much productivity can one expect from Watson this season? Not as much as other tight ends in my opinion. L.J. Smith is the 10^th tight end taken in drafts this season. He’s a high risk, high reward tight end. Donovan McNabb is returning from a serious knee injury and it is assumed that he will be less mobile this season. With his decreased mobility, he may throw more to his tight end than downfield to his receivers. But if McNabb were to injure his knee again, that would result in less productivity from L.J. Smith. The 11^th tight end taken off the board is Randy McMichael. He moves from Miami to St. Louis and should be a welcome addition to the St. Louis pass happy offense. McMichael could be a nice sleeper at tight end this season. I personally would take him ahead of Watson and Smith. The 12^th and final tier 3 tight end drafted this season is Jason Whitten of the Dallas Cowboys. Two seasons ago, Whitten was a top 5 tight end, but last season he was just average at best. Was it because he and Romo did not develop any chemistry? I think that with the maturity of Romo this season, Whitten can return to a top tight end, although it will be hard to produce better than the tier 1 and tier 2 tights end this season. If you have a draft strategy where you just plain simply wait until the final rounds to draft a tight end or to draft a backup tight end for bye weeks, then you should have your pick of tier 4 tight ends anytime after round 10.

Pass on Antonio Gates (1) in round three. There is more value at tight end in the later rounds. I’m waiting on drafting a tight end until the later rounds. This would also eliminate earlier draft picks such as Todd Heap (2), Jeremy Shockey (3), and Tony Gonzalez (4).

Running Back Analysis - August 5, 2007