Quarterback Analysis - Average Draft Position

Quarterback Analysis for Your 2007 Fantasy Football Drafts

July 23, 2007 by Jeff Boggis, "The Sultan of Stats" For Fantasy Football Empire.com.

In my first article and podcast, I laid out the overall draft strategy for the 2007 fantasy football drafts. I stated that it is my belief that the catalyst of this year’s drafts has to revolve around obtaining a top quarterback, without passing on some of the top running backs. It’s not an easy thing to do, but if you participate in many mock drafts, along with looking at the average draft positions for each player, you can get a decent feel for where you need to target the top quarterbacks in each round. The goal here is not to necessarily target Peyton Manning, but to target the top quarterbacks mentioned in the article. You don’t have to draft Peyton Manning to win your fantasy football leagues, but I believe that you need a top 5 quarterback this season to be successful. The last thing that you want to do is to end up with Jon Kitna or Eli Manning as your starting quarterback this season. My overall game plan is to land a quarterback that I have ranked anywhere from 2-5 in the quarterback rankings. In order to accomplish this, fantasy football managers will need to draft a quarterback in rounds 3 or 4. Yes, you will potentially miss out on a stud wide receiver, but the drop off between a top 5 QB and the rest of the quarterbacks is greater than the drop off at wide receiver in the later rounds. Wide receivers are very much like outfielders in fantasy baseball. Someone can emerge as a star that may be drafted in the middle to late rounds. So let’s take a look at the quarterback rankings by tiers of talent that will lay out the foundation and roadmap for where you can look to draft your quarterbacks.

Peyton Manning – Indianapolis Colts – Manning is in a class by himself and should be the quarterback taken off the board first in most fantasy football drafts. He has the ability to work even harder in 2007, regardless of winning in all in 2006. He is dedicated, a smart and hard worker, and he has the drive and determination to be the best, year after year. I project that Peyton will have somewhere between 30-35 TD passes, to go along with 4000+ passing yards. The upside with taking Peyton in the late first round is that you will have the best QB in the league that can single handedly win your league each week (depending on your scoring format). The downside to drafting Peyton Manning early in round 2 is that you will be 1 round behind everyone for the running backs and wide receivers (assuming that you drafted a top RB late in round 1.) If you take Peyton Manning early in round 2, your draft strategy will then be to take the best RB left on the board in round 3 and the best WR left on the board in round 4. Based on the current average draft position, you are theoretically looking at Cadillac Williams as your #2 RB and T.J. Houshmandzadeh as your #1 WR. You will then have to take your #2 and #3 WR’s with picks 59 and 62 to complete your receiving corps. Darrell Jackson and Calvin Johnson look like your best bets in rounds 4 and 5. So this is the team that you could potentially have if you get Peyton Manning at pick #14 in your draft. But I would bet that Manning goes in the late picks of round 1 as opposed to the early picks in round 2. Either way, you would just flip flop your RB for QB scenario and if you took Manning at pick #11, you would follow that up with the best RB on the board at pick #14.

This is the most opportune time to take your quarterback this season. These are the quarterbacks that can take you to the fantasy football playoffs. These quarterbacks are in the sweet spot of the draft. They offer great value without having to use too early a pick and passing on an elite running back.

Carson Palmer – Cincinnati Bengals – Palmer is the best of the tier 2 quarterbacks, but to get him, you’ll have to take him in the early to middle of the 3^rd round. It’s a tradeoff between taking an elite quarterback and an elite wide receiver. But there will be more talented wide receivers available later in the draft compared to talented quarterbacks, so it is better to take a tier 2 quarterback than an elite wide receiver. Palmer’s knee surgery is behind him and he really is the only quarterback right now that can come close to matching Peyton Manning’s stats. The draft strategy to acquire Palmer is pretty straight forward. You have to take him in round 2 at the earliest and hope that a decent #2 running back is still on the board in the 3^rd round (and this could happen considering that running back is a little deeper and some drafts will have managers take wide receivers in rounds 2 and 3). Or you can cross your fingers and hope that he is available in round 3. He current average draft position is 29 so that puts him around the 5^th pick in round 3. Palmer could easily exceed 4,000 yards passing and 30 touchdowns in 2007.

Drew Brees – New Orleans Saints – He is currently the 3^rd quarterback being taken in fantasy football drafts this season. He has many weapons in New Orleans with Bush, McAllister, Henderson, and Colston in the mix. Joe Horn is gone, but he really wasn’t a dominant factor in 2006. He only had 679 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns in 2006, so he really won’t be missed that much. Brees had then 2^nd most amount of fantasy points in 2006, finishing 2^nd to only Peyton Manning. New Orleans had the top rated offense in 2006 and I expect much of the same in 2007. If you want to draft Drew Brees, you need to take him in round 3. He probably won’t be there by the end of round 4. Look for Brees to put up close to 4,200 passing yards and 30 touchdowns.

Tom Brady – New England Patriots – He should be the 4^th quarterback taken off the board in most 2007 fantasy football drafts. He’s had some off the field distractions this season, not to mention becoming a new father. He now has some good weapons at wide receiver this season, so Brady will continue spreading the ball around to different targets in 2007. He will now have the addition of Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Kelley Washington, and Donte Stallworth to throw to this season. Look for Brady to surpass 3,700 yards passing along with 30+ TDs.

Marc Bulger – St. Louis Rams – Bulger could hold out this season, or show up to camp late, as he is trying to negotiate a new contract. He will be a free agent in 2008. I am not at all concerned with Bulger’s contract status right now as this should all be worked out soon enough and will have little to no fantasy impact this season. A 4,000 yard passing and 28 TD season should be in the cards for Bulger in 2007. For a draft perspective, he is the last of the tier 2 quarterbacks that should be taken in fantasy football drafts this season. He has an average draft position of around pick 45, so that puts him around the 9^th pick in round 4. Once Brady is off the board, I would not hesitate to take Bulger. You can even make an argument that Bulger could have better overall fantasy numbers than Brady in 2007. My personal draft strategy is to take Palmer, Brees, Brady, or Bulger in all of my fantasy football drafts this season, with the exception if someone (regardless of position) falls into my lap that should have been drafted much earlier.

In fantasy football, like in a lot of things in life, there are the laws of supply and demand. There will be 5 teams that get a tier 1 or tier 2 quarterback, and the other 7 teams will land a tier 3 or lower quarterback. So you didn’t land a top 5 quarterback or you have a different draft strategy where you want to wait on your quarterback? Then let’s discuss what options are available with these quarterbacks.

Donovan McNabb – Philadelphia Eagles – McNabb would easily be a tier 2 quarterback if not for the season ending injury in 2006. He was a top fantasy quarterback through mid-season in 2006, but his season was cut short with a torn knee ligament. He is a tier 3 QB due to his injury concern. The fact of the matter is that he has durability issues and I don’t want that out of any players that I am considering with an early draft pick. In the past 5 seasons, McNabb has only had 2 seasons where he actually played more than 10 games per season. That’s a huge red flag for me. Even if he does come back healthy in 2007, they are going to focus on the run and the talents of Brian Westbrook than risk re-injuring their star QB. He’s definitely one of the top high risk, high reward, QBs in this year’s draft. I project that McNabb could have 3,500 passing yards, 25 passing TDs, 150-200 rushing yards with 3 rushing TDs. If you are a gambler, then McNabb is your man. I was burned last season as I drafted Daunte Culpepper who was also returning from injury. I won’t make that same mistake in drafts this season.

Tony Romo – Dallas Cowboys – Tony Romo’s stats were very average during the final games of the 2006 season as he made some careless mistakes along the way. I think that he will improve in 2007, but there will be growing pains along the way. He may be a QB that you have to play the matchups against on a weekly basis. Romo’s average draft position is around 71 which makes him the 11^th pick in the 6^th round. I project 3,500 passing season and 22 TDs for Romo in 2007.

Matt Hasselbeck – Seattle Seahawks – Another inconsistent quarterback that was hit or miss in the 2006 season. He also dealt with an injured knee as he missed part of the season. In the off season, he had surgery to his non-throwing shoulder. With Alexander back in the fold and hopefully 100%, Hasselbeck should improve over last season. With his current average draft position at 76, Hasselbeck will be available to draft with the 4^th pick of the 7^th round. I would personally take him over Romo. Project Hasselbeck to throw for 3,300 yards and have 25 passing TDs.

Jon Kitna – Detroit Lions – The trouble with Kitna is that the lions fell behind opponents all season and Kitna threw a lot of interceptions during the 2^nd half of games. His average draft position is currently at 84 which has him going during the last pick of the 7^th round. That’s way too early for a QB that should be more of a backup than a fantasy football starter. Kitna should be good for 3,500 passing yards and 20 TDs.

Philip Rivers – San Diego – Rivers will be under new coach Norv Turner this season as he recovers from a foot injury at the developed at the end of the 2006 season. A 3,600 passing yard season, along with 25 TDs could be in store for Rivers this season. He is surrounded by the likes of LT and Gates. His current average draft position is 84 which has him going with the first pick in round 8. He makes a nice value pick if your draft plan is to first draft 2 running backs, 3 wide receivers, a tight end, and maybe even a top defense.

Eli Manning – New York Giants – Manning still has played in the shadow of his brother and to this point he has not lived up to expectations. I’m concerned that with the departure of Tiki Barber, defenses are going to sit back and not play the run as much as when Barber was the Giant’s running back. This is going to force Manning into throwing into double coverage. Yes he has Toomer, Shockey, and Burress as weapons to throw to, but I would not feel confident with this Manning as my starting QB. His average draft position is 91 which makes him a middle of the 8^th round pick. I project Manning to throw for 3,500 yards and have 25 passing TDs, but it would not surprise me if he also had 20+ interceptions this season.

Vince Young – Tennessee Titans – Young is the quarterback sleeper of the 2007 season. He has the talent to not only pass for TDs, but he can score TDs on the ground. Young had the most rushing TDs in 2006 with 7. I think that defenses will adjust this season and Vince won’t have that many rushing TDs in 2007. Also, he needs to cut down on his TD/INT ratio as it was 12/13 in 2006. Look for Young to throw for 2,500 yards and throw for 15 TDs in 2007. Young’s current average draft position is 94 which has him going with the 10^th pick of the 8^th round.

Matt Leinart – Arizona Cardinals – Leinart is loaded with talent and he is surrounded with one of the best receiving corps in all of football. He still will have some growing pains along the way, but could turn out to be a nice value pick. At pick number 102, he is the last of the tier 3 QBs on the board. He’s really the last QB that you would want to take in your drafts. Look for Leinart to throw for 3,500 passing yards and 20 TDs.

Michael Vick – Atlanta Falcons – Too high of a risk to be drafting this season. I’d be surprised if he played one down of football this season.

Jay Cutler – Denver Broncos – Makes a nice #2 QB for your team, but I would not rely on him as your #1 starting QB.

Brett Favre – Green Bay Packers – Too many interceptions make him a weekly risky play.

Ben Roethlisberger - Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steeler’s conservative offense makes it hard to get excited about big Ben as your #1 QB.

Jake Delhomme – Carolina Panthers – A new offensive coordinator may make for a shaky start, but if he gets in a groove, he could move up to starting status.

Quarterback Rankings - Updated August 2007